tl;dr The future of vibe coding is end-user programming; another label for a larger danger.
For a short moment, the web was abuzz about vibe coding, where non-professionals use a code AI and other assisting tools to develop software themselves. The idea was that anyone could vibe-code and that all the practices of professional software engineering didn’t really matter: You should go with the flow, accept suggestions, and the tools will fix it. Naturally, professional software engineers and researchers alike scoffed and went their way.
Still, vibe coding hit a nerve. That nerve is called end-user programming, has been around for decades, and is still looking for its day in the sun outside of special niches. End-user programming is what it says: End-users are people who program for their own needs, typically without any professional education about software engineering. Estimates put the number of end-users over educated software engineers at a factor of 10.
You may not necessarily recognize end-user programming when you see it. There is one hugely successful example, though: Spreadsheets, in particular in the form of Microsoft Excel. Excel runs a lot of businesses including in the world of finance. Programming here is what you can put into Excel cells as well as functions you may be able to call from them. It still requires structured thinking and annoys people with syntax errors.
End-user programming tends to do away with all the practices of software engineering that you would like to see if you are at the receiving end of the software being developed. In particular, the world of investment banking is relying on Excel in unhealthy ways. The prime example is The London Whale (a person and their spreadsheets) who caused a US$6.2bn loss to J.P. Morgan due to insufficient spreadsheet quality assurance.
Vibe coding now does away with the harness of specialized environments like Excel and end-users with a bit of a technical bent can now program anything. Home automation? Business workflows? You name it. All of it without the individual education and organizational governance of a professional software engineering organization. We are all just waiting for a new London Whale that melts down a power plant or brings down an agency’s workflows.
Because this danger is so obvious to the trained eye, I’m assuming tool vendors addressing the end-user programming market will (have to) invest heavily into automated quality assurance etc. And that is good thing. I just hope it doesn’t need a major disaster to trigger that investment.
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